Race to Replace Sherrill in NJ-11 Remains Too Close to Call as Progressive Surge Upends Expectations
The special Democratic primary to replace Governor Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District has devolved into a nail-biter, with progressive activist Analilia Mejia holding a razor-thin lead over former Congressman Tom Malinowski as of Friday morning.
What began as a crowded 11-candidate field has narrowed to a dead heat between the establishment-favored Malinowski and the Bernie Sanders-backed Mejia, a result that has stunned political observers and raised questions about the efficacy of outside spending in the district.
Deep Search: The Numbers and the Money
As of the latest tally, Mejia leads Malinowski by approximately 486 votes—a margin of less than one percentage point—with over 61,000 ballots counted. While Malinowski performed well with early mail-in ballots, Mejia dominated the Election Day vote, erasing his early lead late Thursday night. The race remains uncalled as officials continue to process outstanding mail-in and provisional ballots, which could take days to finalize.
The contest was heavily influenced by the United Democracy Project (UDP), a super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Federal Election Commission data reveals the group poured over $2.3 million into the race to attack Malinowski. Their strategy appears to have been a “bank shot”: weaken the front-running moderate to consolidate support behind another centrist. Instead, the negative barrage may have inadvertently cleared the lane for Mejia, the most progressive candidate in the field.
Objections and Controversies
The race has been defined by fierce ideological clashes and controversial tactics.
The “AIPAC Blunder”: Critics are calling UDP’s involvement a massive strategic error. The super PAC ran ads attacking Malinowski—a former State Department official with a generally pro-Israel record—from the left*, criticizing a 2019 procedural vote to suggest he supported aggressive ICE enforcement. The intended effect was to peel away liberal voters, but rather than flocking to a different moderate, those voters appear to have consolidated around Mejia.
Policy Clash on Israel: Mejia represents a sharp departure from the district’s traditional centrist politics. She has publicly accused Israel of committing “genocide” in Gaza and called for an offensive weapons ban, positions that stand in stark contrast to Malinowski’s support for Israel’s right to defend itself, despite his criticisms of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Establishment vs. Insurgent: Malinowski, who previously represented the neighboring 7th District, was seen by many as the “safe” choice to hold the seat for Democrats. Mejia’s potential victory is drawing objections from moderate Democrats who fear her left-wing platform could be a liability in a general election, even in a district that has trended blue.
Background Info
The vacancy was created when Mikie Sherrill, a moderate Democrat and former Navy pilot, resigned to assume the governorship of New Jersey after her landslide victory in November 2025. The 11th District, centered in Morris and Essex counties, was historically a Republican stronghold but flipped during the Trump era, becoming a reliable suburban Democratic seat.
Whoever emerges from this primary will face Republican nominee Joe Hathaway, the mayor of Randolph, in the special general election scheduled for April 16, 2026. While the district is favored to remain in Democratic hands, a victory by a hard-left candidate like Mejia could energize Republican opposition in a way a moderate successor to Sherrill would not.
jewishinsider.com
njspotlightnews.org
morristowngreen.com
theguardian.com
apnews.com
yahoo.com
insidernj.com
prospect.org
forward.com
