Historian Robert Kagan Warns Europe: U.S. Now a “Hostile and Potentially Predatory” Power
In a stark assessment of the shifting geopolitical landscape, prominent conservative historian and foreign policy commentator Robert Kagan has issued a grave warning to European leaders, asserting that the United States under President Donald Trump has fundamentally altered its role on the world stage. Speaking in a recent interview, Kagan characterized the United States as having transformed into a “hostile and potentially predatory nation,” signaling the definitive end of the transatlantic security architecture that has stabilized the West for eight decades.
Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a one-time influential voice in Republican foreign policy circles, argued that the era of American reliability is over. For nearly 80 years, European security was underpinned by a reliable U.S. guarantee—a “grand bargain” wherein the United States provided defense in exchange for stability and economic cooperation. According to Kagan, that bargain has been shattered. He contends that European nations must now accept a new reality where they can no longer count on Washington to come to their aid in times of crisis.
“The United States is now a hostile and potentially predatory nation under Donald Trump,” Kagan stated, emphasizing that the administration’s approach views traditional alliances not as assets, but as burdens or targets for economic extraction. This shift, he suggests, leaves Europe in a historically precarious position, effectively “squeezed” between two aggressive powers: a revanchist Russia to the east and an unpredictable, transactional United States to the west.
The historian’s comments reflect a growing anxiety among foreign policy experts regarding the dismantling of the post-World War II liberal international order. Kagan warned that the current U.S. administration is abandoning the values of democracy and mutual defense that once bound the Atlantic alliance. Instead, he describes a “rogue superpower” dynamic, where the U.S. utilizes its overwhelming economic and military weight to demand tribute—through tariffs and diplomatic coercion—rather than to foster collective security.
Kagan’s prescription for Europe is drastic. He urged European capitals to stop hoping for a return to the pre-Trump status quo and instead undertake a “strategic revolution.” This would entail achieving genuine military and economic self-sufficiency, a move that would require massive political will and financial investment across the continent. “Europe needs to become self-sufficient in both military and economic terms,” Kagan advised, warning that failure to do so could result in the fracturing of the European project into fiefdoms influenced by external great powers.
The remarks underscore a deepening rift in the transatlantic relationship. As Washington increasingly turns inward or acts unilaterally, Kagan’s analysis suggests that the “normal” international relations of the past century—defined by U.S. hegemony and protection—are being replaced by a more volatile, multipolar competition. For Europe, the message is clear: the American security umbrella is closing, and the continent must prepare to weather the coming storms alone.
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