Russia’s campaign in Ukraine shows no clear sign of slowing down, with defence analysts estimating that Moscow can sustain its military operations throughout 2026. This projection comes amid ongoing battlefield pressures, recruitment challenges and rising investment in advanced missiles and drones. Experts say that Europe faces growing security demands as the conflict persists and evolves.
Russia’s War Capacity Remains Intact Despite Strain
Military strategists report that Russia has maintained significant defence expenditure and redirected national resources toward its prolonged campaign. In 2025, Moscow allocated tens of billions of dollars to its defence forces—a share of national economic output far exceeding many Western counterparts. This heavy investment underpins high-intensity operations against Ukraine, even as the Russian economy slows and battlefield losses accumulate. Observers note that troop recruitment appears insufficient to match casualty rates, forcing the Kremlin to draw from populations with poorer health and fitness profiles.
Advanced Weapons and Expanding Threats Across Europe
Moscow has ramped up development and deployment of longer-range missiles and unmanned attack drones capable of striking deep into European territory. Some of these systems boast ranges up to 2,000 kilometres, prompting alarm among NATO planners. Analysts emphasise the urgent need for enhanced air and drone defence networks across alliance members, citing recent incidents of cross-border incursions that exposed weaknesses in current systems.
European Security Dilemmas and Defence Preparedness
In response to the sustained Russian threat, European NATO countries and Canada have committed to gradually boosting defence spending targets over the next decade. However, experts highlight that achieving these ambitions will require sustained political will and resource allocations. Many member states still depend heavily on U.S. military technology, intelligence and space capabilities—reliance that complicates Europe’s ability to independently deter future aggression.
