This week’s breakdown of peace talks between a US delegation and Russia spotlights a familiar yet dangerous pattern: a push for a Ukraine settlement favoring Moscow, met with fierce European resistance. As old alliances strain under new geopolitical realities, Europe is doing its best to prevent a rollback of Ukraine’s sovereignty — but the fundamental imbalance in arms and resources casts doubt on how long it can hold this line.
The Recurring Pattern of US–Russia Negotiations
Since the re-election of the US president earlier this year, Washington has pursued a bilateral deal with Moscow, avoiding Ukraine’s military rearmament in favour of a negotiated settlement. The recent meeting with Russia’s top leadership, meant to jump-start peace efforts, once again ended without agreement. That failure fits a pattern: talk, tweak the terms, diplomacy stalls — and the war grinds on.
Under this approach, the US prefers diplomacy over weapons, seeking to end hostilities potentially at the cost of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Meanwhile, Russia continues to press its advantage on the ground, aiming to translate battlefield gains into political leverage. The peace negotiations keep returning — not because they work, but because both Washington and Moscow remain committed to the same strategy.
European Resistance: Strong, But Fragile
Across Europe and within NATO (minus the US), leaders have repeatedly blocked any US–Russia deal that would trade peace for Ukraine’s concessions. This informal “coalition of the willing” — made up of most EU member states plus Canada — has provided financial and military support to Kyiv and resisted proposals viewed as rewarding Moscow’s aggression.
Still, this resistance has limits. European nations lack the deep pockets and military muscle of the US or Russia. Without consistent American backing, their influence remains constrained. The current standoff may hold for now — but if Washington’s diplomatic efforts re-intensify, there’s no guarantee Europe can counterbalance them indefinitely.
A Western Order on Life Support
The present diplomatic tug-of-war exposes a deeper issue: the Western security architecture that emerged after 1945 is under severe strain. The uneven distribution of military power, waning political cohesion, and competing national interests all threaten the stability of post-war alliances.
Europe finds itself in a defensive posture: committed in principle to Ukraine’s defense — but incapable of enforcing a lasting settlement on its own. If the US decides to withdraw or realign its priorities, Europe may be forced to pay a steep price: either accept a fragile peace that compromises Ukraine’s sovereignty, or risk further escalation in a war with no end.
