Geopolitical Rivalries Reshape the Red Sea as Gulf States and Turkey Expand Influence in the Horn of Africa
The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the intensifying involvement of Gulf nations and Turkey. This surge in external diplomatic and strategic activity is effectively partitioning the Red Sea region into two distinct and competing camps, marking a major shift in the balance of power along one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors.
Observers note that the region is currently bifurcating into specific strategic axes. The first bloc is characterized as an Emirati-backed axis that benefits from Israeli support. This alignment suggests a push for a new security and economic architecture in the region, leveraging specific bilateral partnerships to project influence.
In contrast to this grouping is a coalition composed of African states dedicated to maintaining the political status quo. This second camp has increasingly aligned itself with a tripartite power block featuring Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The cooperation between Cairo, Riyadh, and Ankara in this context represents a notable convergence of interests, uniting traditional regional powers with Turkish influence to counterbalance opposing strategic visions.
The emergence of these rival coalitions highlights the growing strategic value of the Horn of Africa. As these external powers deepen their engagement, the Red Sea is evolving from a mere channel for global commerce into a contested theater of influence. This polarization presents complex challenges for local nations in the Horn of Africa, which must now navigate a divided diplomatic field. The competition is expected to influence decisions regarding port development, military cooperation, and foreign investment. As these two blocs solidify their positions, the Red Sea region is witnessing a redefinition of its traditional alliances, creating a new geopolitical reality defined by multipolar competition.
