Secretary Noem Touts Historic Drop in Homicide Rates, Credits Trump Administration for 125-Year Low
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has highlighted a significant milestone in national public safety, announcing that the United States murder rate has plummeted to its lowest level since 1900. Taking to social media to share the statistics, Noem explicitly credited the leadership of President Donald Trump for the historic decline, framing the data as a validation of the administration’s tough-on-crime policies and federal law enforcement strategies.
The assertion posits that current homicide figures have undercut benchmarks set over a century ago, representing a dramatic turnaround from the crime spikes observed earlier in the decade. By invoking the year 1900, the administration is contrasting the current safety climate against the violent crime waves of the 1970s, 1980s, and early 1990s, suggesting that the nation has entered a new era of security. This narrative aligns with the President’s long-standing focus on restoring “law and order” and empowering police departments across the country.
Background data regarding violent crime in the United States shows a volatile history. Following the pandemic-era surge in homicides around 2020 and 2021, preliminary data from major cities and the FBI began indicating a cooling trend in violent offenses starting in 2023 and continuing through 2025. Achieving a rate lower than 1900 would be statistically significant; historical records suggest the homicide rate at the turn of the 20th century hovered between 1.2 and 6.0 per 100,000 people, depending on the data source and the limited reporting agencies of that era.
However, the claim has drawn scrutiny from criminologists and data analysts who warn against direct comparisons between modern crime metrics and historical data from the early 1900s. Critics point out that data collection methods a century ago were far less comprehensive than the modern FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system, potentially skewing long-term comparisons. Furthermore, while the administration points to federal leadership as the primary driver, experts often argue that crime rates are influenced by a complex web of factors—including economic stability, demographic shifts, local judicial policies, and community-based interventions—that operate independently of the White House. While the downward trend in violence is widely acknowledged, the extent to which it constitutes a 125-year low remains a subject of debate among statistical auditors.
